Twins Territory - Progression, Regression or Luck: Michael Tarsi

Prior to the beginning of the 2008 season John Sickels, creator of MinorLeagueBall.com and author of the annual Baseball Prospect Book, wrote "Tarsi's velocity can be erratic, at times in the lower 90s but more often in the 85-88 range last year. But he sinks the ball and picks up plenty of grounders, and his curveball and changeup are promising." Sickels's statement insinuated that the change in velocity is a detriment, resulting in Sickels' grading of Tarsi as a C+ (with sleeper potential). I, however, would have interpreted this variance in velocity differently. Far too often, college pitchers attempt to light up the radar gun to mixed results. Some ascend quickly as front offices value the speed rather than the process (read: Kansas City, Texas). Later in the pitcher's advancement through the minor leagues, the player needs to be re-educated about approach and the necessity to keeping a player off-balance. Tarsi's ability to vary his fastball from the low-90s to 85 is potentially showing an enlightened pitcher. Opponents cannot sit on a consistent fastball at a consistent speed, they are seeing different velocity and are only able to ground out. Meanwhile Seth Stohs of sethspeaks.net, on the other hand, had a significantly more optimistic view of Tarsi, naming him the Twins 38th best prospect writing "Tarsi is not an overpowering type at all, but at 6-8, he could add more velocity but could also have a great arm angle."

When the Twins drafted Michael Tarsi out of the University of Connecticut with their 392nd overall selection in the 2007 amateur draft, they were projecting big things for the equally big 20-year-old. The six-foot-eight left-hander found himself as the eighth Big East alumni selected in the major league draft after finishing his senior year 6-4 with a 3.70 era in 87.2 innings of work (with 2 complete games). This was his first full-time duty as a collegiate starter. As his innings worked increased, his strikeouts per nine innings decreased. In 2006, Tarsi played in 13 games for 34 innings and was used out of the pen six times - posting a K/9 of 9.00. The following season, UCONN used him 14 times and all but one was a start and his k/9 decreased to 6.57. Still, with his size and his left-handed arm would convince the Twins scouting department that Tarsi would be a steal in the 12th round. Tarsi was sent to Elizabethton in the Appalachian League where he immediately thrived. In 52.2 innings of work Tarsi went 5-2 with a 2.22 era. Tarsi pitched nearly 85% of the time away from the pitching-friendly Elizabethton Twins' home field, Joe O'Brien Stadium, logging nearly 45 innings on the road. His 2007 peripheral numbers support his legitimacy including a high strikeout rate of 26.6% and a low walk rate of just 5.9%. Furthermore, Tarsi was inciting grounders nearly 70% of the time a ball was put in play. On August 25th against the Danville Braves, Tarsi struck out 10 batters in just 5 innings of work. The Twins organization assessed his statistics and advanced him to low-A Beloit in the Midwest League to begin 2008. Tarsi had a tumultuous introduction to the Midwest League. In his five starts in April, Tarsi lost all five starts with a bloated 8.17 era. His strikeout rate (12.8%) was greatly deflated from his impressive 2007 professional debut (26.6%) and opponents were hitting .364 off of him (.238 last season). He gave up five home runs in 25.1 innings when he didn't allow a single one all of last year.

Judging from his initial low-A month one could certainly deduce that Tarsi was not yet ready for the promotion if the proper research wasn't done. There were other factors that were effecting Tarsi's April performance (and for all of the Snappers pitchers). For instance, the defense behind him had been atrocious. The Snappers have made 107 errors - the most in the Midwest League - leading to the lowest fielding percentage (.959). In 182 innings at shortstop, Snapper Ramon Santana had committed 10 errors (Santana has made another six while playing second). While he might be the one of the best prospects in the Twins systems, Ben Revere has made six errors in the outfield. Even Tarsi himself has committed four errors as a pitcher. Beloit also had the dubious honor of having the lowest Defense Efficiency Ratio of .629, well below the league average of .659. This means that the Snappers were not converting balls in play into outs on a regular basis. Tarsi has suffered immensely from this fact. His batting average on balls in play in April had been .391 (nearly 40% of balls in play were not converted into outs). This is particularly disturbing considering Tarsi had been an extreme groundball pitcher, getting grounders 61% of the time. Moreover Tarsi has nine unearned runs to his credit.

Secondly, Tarsi suffers from an offensively-oriented field. Pohlman Field, while not completely disadvantageous to the pitcher, has a 380' fence in center which is twenty feet closer in than the majority of the other Midwest League team's parks. This gives power hitters a better opportunity at the shorter power alleys in left- and right-center field not to mention dead center. The spacious Joe O'Brien Field in Elizabethton weened pitchers on a fence that had a 400' centerfield wall supplemented by being 18' tall. Those lucky enough to survive Pohlman get to graduate to high-A Fort Myers where the Hammond Stadium fences are placed at distant 404' away from home plate and an equidistant 330' down each line. With Hammond Stadium as Tarsi's next logical step, he has yet to solve Pohlman. Tarsi has started half of his games at home, pitching 28.1 innings at Pohlman where he had given up 34 runs (8.58 era) with an opponent average of .373. Of his seven home runs surrendered, six have come at Pohlman. On the road, Tarsi has been a different pitcher all together. In his 37.1 innings away from Beloit, Tarsi has only allowed 18 runs (3.38 era) with an opponent batting average of .277.

As April transformed into May, Tarsi's performance has improved dramatically. His 0-5 April record changed to 3-6 after a 3-1 May (half of those games were played at Pohlman too). In the past month his strike out rate increased from 12.8% of batters faced to 23.1% batters faced. This led to a decrease in his opponents' average (from .364 to .283) as well as a drop in his era (8.18 to 5.62). On top of that, his 3.79 FIP is an indication that Tarsi has been pitching much better than his 5.62 era would lead people to believe. Whether he (or is agent) knows it or not, Tarsi is far more valuable to the Twins than most of his compatriots on the mound. According to Vince Gennaro's "Diamond Dollars", a dissection of the economics of Major League Baseball, Gennaro found that left-handed starting pitchers (when acquired on the free agent market) cost a team $3.19 million per marginal win. This is more than $600k more per marginal win over than purchasing a free agent right-handed starting pitcher. A franchise like the Minnesota Twins, the notoriously frugal organization, would benefit greatly financially with the development of a left-handed starter like Tarsi.

JP the Twins Fan (circa 1981) is a frequent contributor to the Twins Territory site, highlighting the Twins minor league system in attempts to inform fellow Twins fans of the players below the tip of the ice berg. He currently writes at Over the Baggy and can be reached at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .